Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiNot by 2040 76.6%5 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
44
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis28 Eyl 23 19:40 UTC2 Oca 40 07:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Manifold MarketsBy 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?
Manifold MarketsIn which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
This is a long-term market to measure the base rate of it being proven and agreed on that at least one instance of a "UFOs = Aliens" theory was correct before the creation of this market.
- It resolves to the one option representing the current time period when this happens, or "the named outcome" if this does not happen.
- I plan for resolution to be based on Wikipedia, or whatever else is generally agreed to be the most neutral and trusted online encyclopedia.
- I may require several trusted encyclopedias to agree, and am open to suggestions of which ones to trust.
- If Manifold adds the ability to close options early, I will do so when a date passes without any consensus.
- I will not bet in this market, except to set the initial probability.