Before 2028, will there be a major self-improving AI policy*? için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 1 Kasım 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 70.1% fiyatlıyor.

Before 2028, will there be a major self-improving AI policy*? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?

Before 2028, will there be a major self-improving AI policy*? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2028.

Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: *Resolution conditions (all must apply):

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibre

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Evet 70.1%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Tahmin

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10 dakika önce güncellendi

23 Şub 23 17:57 UTC1 Oca 28 17:57 UTC

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*Resolution conditions (all must apply):

An AI of the form P(action|context) rather than e.g. E[value|context, action] must be a part of a major AI system.
For instance language models such as ChatGPT or Sydney would currently count for this.
The aftermath of its chosen actions must at least sometimes be recorded, and the recordings must be used to estimate what could have usefully been done differently.
RLHF finetuning as it is done today does not count because it solely involves looking at the actions, but e.g. I bet the Sydney team at Bing probably had internal discussions about this incident and those internal discussions would count.
This must be continually used to update P(action|context) to improve itself.