Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 92.4%
Tahminciler
26
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis22 Tem 23 06:14 UTC1 Oca 35 15:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
Resolves as YES if extraterrestrial life kills at least one human being before the year 2035.
- Let R be the mean distance from the center of the Earth to the center of the Moon.
- An extraterrestrial life form is a life form that originated at a distance of 2R or greater from the Earth's center AND has no common ancestor with a terrestrial object or life form.
- For our purposes something is a life form if it:
- (1) Is an object made out of matter.
- (2) The object consumes matter or energy.
Açık piyasalar
Science
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 203076%
- Before 2029+17.3pt49%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺11 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 2027+0.2pt5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mr
- 24s Hacim
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺91,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺291,7 B
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+65.0pt99%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- 0-19.0pt47.6%
- 1+24.5pt40.8%
- 3+6.0pt6.8%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Aliens kill at least one human before 2035 için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 92% fiyatlıyor.
- Aliens kill at least one human before 2035 ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Aliens kill at least one human before 2035 için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2035.
- Aliens kill at least one human before 2035 nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves as YES if extraterrestrial life kills at least one human being before the year 2035.