Will Brazil's federal government meet its primary fiscal surplus target in 2026?
EkonomiOne-OffLatin Amerika2ay
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KalshiKurallar
This market refers exclusively to the primary result — that is, government revenues minus expenditures before the payment of interest on public debt.
- It does not refer to the nominal fiscal result, which includes interest payments.
- The official target defined in Brazil’s 2026 Annual Budget Law (LOA 2026) is a primary surplus of 0.25% of GDP (approximately R$34.5 billion), with a tolerance band of ±0.25 percentage points of GDP.
- Therefore, for this market, the target will be considered met if the primary result is ≥ 0.00% of GDP (i.e., if it is above the lower bound of the tolerance band).
- If Brazil’s central government achieves a positive primary surplus (greater than 0.00% of GDP) for the 2026 calendar year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Resolution will be based on the official consolidated primary result of the Central Government, as initially published by the National Treasury in its annual fiscal report.
