Will any Antarctic Treaty signatory announce or start building a dual-use research station by end of 2027?
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This market asks whether any state that is a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty will, by December 31, 2027, 23:59:59 UTC, announce or begin construction of a new permanent research station in Antarctica explicitly described as dual-use (i.e., both civilian/scientific and military/strategic).
- For resolution purposes, “new” means the station is not an expansion, refurbishment, or reactivation of an existing station but a distinct new facility.
- Primary Designated Source (PDS): official government announcements, defense ministry or foreign ministry press releases, or Antarctic Treaty Secretariat notifications explicitly describing a newly announced or initiated permanent research station in Antarctica as “dual-use.” If such an announcement or construction start occurs during the Market Period, the market will resolve to “Yes.”
- Clarifications:
- Seasonal or temporary bases do not count.
- Upgrades to existing stations do not count.
