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Hayır 96%
Hayır 96%Piyasa kalitesi
32 / 100
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If a quantum-resistant protocol upgrade is activated on the Bitcoin mainnet by December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- To qualify, the upgrade must satisfy all of the following:
- it must constitute a consensus-layer change to the Bitcoin protocol that is live and enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet by the deadline; it must enable the use of a post-quantum-secure signature scheme for standard Bitcoin transactions, intended to provide meaningful resistance against quantum attacks on transaction signing (e.g., attacks against ECDSA or successor schemes); and it must make such quantum-resistant transaction types valid under Bitcoin consensus rules and generally available for use on mainnet, even if their use is optional or not yet widely adopted.
- Proposals, drafts, code releases, miner signaling, node adoption, activations on testnets or alternative networks, wallet-level changes, off-chain solutions, and layer-2 systems do not qualify on their own. "Activated" means the upgrade's rules are enforced on Bitcoin mainnet blocks under consensus rules, following any required activation thresholds or lock-in periods.
- The Primary Designated Source is the Bitcoin Core project's official releases and documentation (bitcoincore.org; github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin), supported by a consensus of credible reporting, honoring the spirit of the market.
Tahmin Kaynağı Karşılaştırması
Bu piyasayı şu anda 2 platform fiyatlıyor. CoinRithm'in CoinRithm referansı için platformlar arası referans olasılığı %3. Platformlar arası fark yaklaşık 2 puan.
CoinRithm referansı 3% · 2 platform · 2 puan venue farkı