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27 Eki 2026 05:21 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
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December 31, 2027 15%
December 31, 2027 15%Piyasa kalitesi
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AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill Lumen Orbit have at least one functioning megawatt-scale data center in space by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill "Pretraining on Aligned AI Data Dramatically R..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?
KalshiWhich states will enact data center moratoriums before 2028?
KalshiKurallar
This set of markets predicts when an orbital AI data center will be successfully launched into Earth's orbit.
- Each of the markets below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve to "Yes" (a successful launch before an earlier deadline also counts toward all later deadlines).
- A market resolves to "Yes" if a qualifying orbital data center is successfully launched on or before the market's deadline. "Successfully launched" means a launch that places the qualifying orbital data center into Earth's orbit.
- An "orbital data center" is any spacecraft, satellite, or equivalent technology carrying computing infrastructure that is launched into Earth's orbit for the purpose of providing data-center, cloud-computing, or artificial intelligence computing services, and that includes at least 100 data-center-grade AI accelerators, GPUs, TPUs, or substantially equivalent compute processors (for example, NVIDIA H100 GPUs, Google TPUs, or any equivalent or successor chips).
- Demonstrators or prototype missions carrying fewer than 100 such accelerators do not qualify.
- Sub-orbital flights, hardware that fails to reach orbit, and ground-based facilities labeled "space data centers" do not qualify.
