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  • Início
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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Russia / Ukraine
  3. U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

One-OffRussia / Ukraine18d
PolymarketPolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim
Sim 2%
Qualidade do mercado

52 / 100

Qualidade média
Volume 24h

227,1 €

Liquidez

16 mil €

Liquidez média
Compra / Venda

2.1% / 2.3%

Spread

9.5%

Spread amplo
Variação 7d

+1.1%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 5 minutos

28/12/25, 23:1230/06/26, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes2%

Regras

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the United States must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
  • Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
  • Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
  • Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.

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Regras

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the United States must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
  • Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
  • Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
  • Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.