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  • Início
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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Geopolítica
  3. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

0.1% (24h)One-OffGeopolíticaRussia / Ukraine18d
PolymarketPolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim
Sim 4%
Qualidade do mercado

64 / 100

Qualidade média
Volume 24h

2,7 mil €

Liquidez

45,1 mil €

Alta liquidez
Compra / Venda

3.6% / 4.2%

Spread

16.7%

Spread amplo
Variação 7d

+0.7%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 7 minutos

17/12/25, 22:4530/06/26, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes4%

Regras

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
  • Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
  • The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
  • Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.

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Regras

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
  • Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
  • The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
  • Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.