Probabilidade implícita atual
Thorsten Frei 98%+0.5%Líder entre 34 opções
Qualidade do mercado
91 / 100
Alta qualidadeVolume 24h
735,1 €
Liquidez
77,5 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venda
97.5% / 98.5%
Spread
1.0%
Spread apertadoVariação 7d
+56.0%
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 19 minutos
18/07/26, 21:0829/07/26, 23:59
Tendências
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
Thorsten Frei98%
Tendência de volume
$83620 de jul.7d de dados26 de jul.
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On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).
- This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.
- The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn.
- Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify.
- If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.