538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?
Política
PolymarketFechadoVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: Democrats
Evidência de resolução limitada
A CoinRithm pode mostrar o resultado registrado, mas nem todos os campos de liquidação são verificados pelo provedor.
Probabilidade implícita atual
Democrats 100%
Qualidade do mercado
15 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
—
Liquidez desconhecidaDados do mercado
Atualizado há 123 dias
Desatualizado2/08/22, 0:0015/08/22, 0:00
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Republicans0%
Democrats100%
100%
0%
Regras
If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Republicans at a greater percentage of support than Democrats for the date of August 15, 2022 at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Republicans".
- If the same graph shows Democrats at a greater percentage of support than Republicans for August 15, 2022 at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Democrats".
- If the same graph shows Republicans and Democrats at an equal percentage of support, this market will resolve to 50-50.
- The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022".
- The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/.
- Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
