Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
GeopolíticaMetaculusFechadoDados de resolução não verificadosEste mercado foi resolvido: No
Dados de resolução não verificados
Este resultado é inferido ou não é apoiado por evidência de liquidação de nível provedor.
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 99.9%
Previsores
978
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Community forecast
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 146 dias
Desatualizado15/11/16, 19:46 UTC31/01/27, 23:59 UTC
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes0.1%
No99.9%
99.9%
0.1%
Mercados Relacionados
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Regras
Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).
- Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
- We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
- This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
- It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027??
- A Metaculus cota No em 100% em 27 de abril de 2026.
- Quando Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? é resolvido?
- Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? é liquidado?
- A Metaculus liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).