Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 94.6%
Previsores
39
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado23/10/24, 23:37 UTC24/10/26, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
PolymarketWill any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsIs Peter Todd Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?
KalshiWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
PolymarketRegras
I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is.
- Tyler Cowen (2024), https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/10/does-it-matter-who-satoshi-was.html
- What matters is the state of affairs when this market closes.
- I have entered the close date as 2026-10-24 and will not change it.
- I will use my judgement to determine whether “we” know who Satoshi is.
- Public evidence available prior to market close that convinces me is sufficient.
Mercados abertos
CryptoPOLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.4pt100%
- 74,000+1.4pt100%
- 68,000100%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 936 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 714,5 mil
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+0.8pt95%
- $50M+10.0pt95%
+4 mais resultados
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $77,000 or above98%
+77 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 567,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 564,3 mil
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $79,365.65 target
- No84%
- Yes16%
- Volume total
- € 1,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 482,8 mil
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 9am EDT?
- $78,700 or above99%
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,600 or above99%
+97 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 403 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 382,6 mil
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,2 mi
- What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin all time high by which date?
- Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 95% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction? é resolvido?
- Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction? deverá ser resolvido em 24 de outubro de 2026.
- Como Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is.