Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 84.4%
Previsores
23
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
29/08/23, 08:39 UTC1/01/85, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?
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Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRegras
Resolves YES if the following is satisfied:
- A tether from earth to a counterweight beyond geostationary orbit
- Vehicles with capacity to lift over 1,000kg payload to geostationary orbit (presumably bigger but let's make it easy) by traversing the tether
- One successful deployment of such a vehicle and payload
- There was talk about doing this by 2050 (China, Japan), but I suspect that was a little overly optimistic.
- Other markets on manifold predict a start date (at time of writing) of 2069.
