Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 91.1%
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado13/09/26, 17:13 UTC31/12/26, 18:12 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump publicly makes a new, distinct policy promise between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, that is deemed "absurd" by a majority of voters in a community poll.
- To resolve the market:
- The promise must be new and announced after the market's creation (thus excluding previous proposals like the $5,000 "Trump dividend").
- If Trump makes a new prominent promise that is widely characterized by media, analysts, or the public as highly unrealistic or absurd, a poll will be conducted among Manifold users to determine if it meets the "absurd" threshold.
- If a simple majority of voters in the poll agree that the promise is absurd, this market resolves to YES.