Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 56.9% em 31 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030? é resolvido?

Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2029.

ChinaOne-Off3a

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 56.9%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 4 horas

Desatualizado

3/07/26, 09:09 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the US government has materially cut ASML off from Cymer before January 1st 2030.

For this market, “cut ASML off from Cymer” means that a US government action prevents, or is clearly intended to prevent, ASML from owning, controlling, receiving, using, or relying on Cymer’s products, services, technology, personnel, IP, parts, or manufacturing capacity in a way that is material to ASML’s lithography business.
Examples that would resolve YES include:
A US law, executive order, sanctions action, export-control action, CFIUS action, court order, or agency order requiring ASML to divest, spin off, sell, firewall, or otherwise separate Cymer from ASML.
A US government action prohibiting Cymer from supplying ASML or other ASML group entities with light sources, components, maintenance, engineering support, software, IP, manufacturing services, or related technology.
ASML, Cymer, the US government, or multiple credible major news sources report that US restrictions have effectively blocked ASML from using Cymer in its lithography products or operations.