Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
ClimaDaily1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 65.2%
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 23 horas
Desatualizado11/07/23, 03:56 UTC1/01/28, 05:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?
Manifold MarketsWill the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature in 2026 be 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average ?
Manifold MarketsWill climate intervention (geoengineering) reduce global mean surface temperature by at least 0.1°C by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the average global temperature in 2026 exceed 2025?
Manifold MarketsWill the Average Global Temperature for any year be greater than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2045?
ForecastExWill the Average Global Temperature for any year be greater than 1.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2045?
ForecastExRegras
This is part of a series of questions on the predictions from the last Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
- The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027 is more likely than not (66%).
- It is unlikely (32%) that the five-year mean will exceed this threshold.
- This question is about that second sentence, whether the mean over the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5℃.
- I will base the resolution on data from the WMO, if available.
- Otherwise, I will base it on the most reliable measurements I can find.
