Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 64%
Previsores
11
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado3/04/23, 04:55 UTC2/01/27, 00:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the first Reuters article about Manifold mention assassination markets?
Manifold MarketsWill the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?
Manifold MarketsWill NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill NYT write an article about a scandal at 80,000 Hours, before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Mentioning assassination markets does not need to involve the word "assassination", as long as there's a clear reference to the moral hazard and potential controversy.
- To count, the article must be substantially about Manifold Markets as a place for prediction markets.
- As in other contexts, I'll use "33% of the length is actually about Manifold" as a rough threshold, but I reserve the right to adjust if I decide that rule is inappropriate on a case-by-case basis.
- I'll not be betting in this market, of course.
Mercados abertos
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 944,1 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 721,8 mil
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volume total
- € 620 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 536 mil
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume total
- € 514,9 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 496,9 mil
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 64% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets? é resolvido?
- Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Mentioning assassination markets does not need to involve the word "assassination", as long as there's a clear reference to the moral hazard and potential controversy.