Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 93.6% em 29 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050? é resolvido?

Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2050.

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 93.6%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 2 horas

Desatualizado

2/02/24, 18:28 UTC2/01/50, 07:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 3.5°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050

Resolves negative otherwise
https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision measured.
So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 3.51°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 3.50°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.