Will Republicans win the early voting game and win the 2026 midterms?
PolíticaOne-OffEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 2026EleiçãoPolítica dos EUA1m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 05:41 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 91.7%
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2
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado24/10/26, 17:26 UTC30/11/26, 11:00 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if both of the following conditions are met regarding the 2026 United States midterm elections:
- Electoral Control: The Republican Party wins or retains a majority in both the U.S. Senate (at least 51 seats, or 50 seats if holding the vice presidency) and the U.S. House of Representatives (at least 218 seats) following the November 2026 elections, based on official certified results reported by major decision desks (e.g., AP News).
- Early Voting Margin: Registered Republicans (or voters casting early ballots on Republican primary/party-affiliated lists where tracked) cast more total early/absentee votes nationally than registered Democrats, as tracked and reported by nonpartisan tracking repositories such as the University of Florida Election Lab (formerly the U.S. Elections Project) or state election agency totals.
- If Republicans fail to achieve either condition—either failing to win/hold both chambers of Congress or failing to outpace Democrats in overall early/absentee ballots cast—the market resolves to NO.
- Note: Because "win the early voting game" is colloquial, the creator may update or narrow the specific data source and definition (e.g., aggregate early vote total vs. key battleground states) prior to election day.