Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 73.9%
Previsores
149
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 46 minutos
Atrasado13/08/24, 23:58 UTC15/08/29, 22:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWhich UK political figures will defect to Reform UK before the next election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketUK election called by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Win as in forms the next government.
- In the case of a coalition, if reform is the larger party in the coalition I will resolve yes, otherwise if they are the minor party in the coalition I will cancel the market and return funds.
- This seems fairest to me as even if they are in government I wouldn’t say they have technically “won” being a the smaller party of a coalition, and they haven’t really lost, either.
- List of my other reform related markets:
- https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-win-less-than-50-seats
- https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-uk-and-the-conservative
