Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 94.9%
Previsores
38
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado18/02/24, 05:12 UTC2/01/30, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsRegras
This market resolves YES if, by January 1, 2030, I can prompt a text-to-video generator to create a 1 minute video and get a result meeting the following criteria:
- I have to wait no more than one second for the video to load (either at the beginning or anywhere in the middle)
- At least 1080p resolution
- At least 24 frames per second
- Subjectively, at least as realistic and visually appealing as the "stylish woman walks down a Tokyo street" example from Sora
- If I wanted to, I could do this 100 times on the same day and pay less than $20 (this accounts for various pricing schemes, e.g. subscription-based or pay-per-video)
Mercados abertos
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Volume total
- € 12,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 11,2 mi
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 24 mi
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Volume total
- € 15,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,9 mi
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 24,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,9 mi
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Volume total
- € 2,1 mi
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
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- Real Madrid vs Inter
- US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 95% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2030? é resolvido?
- Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves YES if, by January 1, 2030, I can prompt a text-to-video generator to create a 1 minute video and get a result meeting the following criteria: