Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 51.5%
Previsores
2
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado22/12/25, 18:44 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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PolymarketWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- A blood test developed by the University of East Anglia and Oxford BioDynamics achieved 96% accuracy in diagnosing ME/CFS, published in the Journal of Translational Medicine in October 2025.
- This market resolves YES if a larger replication study demonstrates comparable accuracy (≥80% sensitivity and specificity combined, or ≥85% accuracy) in a cohort of at least 200 participants.
- The study must be published in a peer-reviewed journal or preprint server by December 31, 2030.
- Resolution will be based on the reported accuracy metrics in the published study.
- ME/CFS is a debilitating condition affecting millions worldwide, including over 400,000 in the UK.
Mercados abertos
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.3pt97%
- Yes+0.3pt3%
- Volume total
- € 15,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 35,6 mil
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mil
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Volume total
- € 83,5 mil
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 864,2 mil
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume total
- € 915,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,5 mil
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Volume total
- € 4,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will ME/CFS blood test replicate in larger study??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 52% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will ME/CFS blood test replicate in larger study? é resolvido?
- Will ME/CFS blood test replicate in larger study? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como Will ME/CFS blood test replicate in larger study? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria