Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?
One-OffETFExchangeBusiness & Corporate2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 56.9%
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1
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado8/11/24, 22:09 UTC8/11/26, 07:59 UTC
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On the Money Stuff column on 7th November, Matt Levine wrote:
- “Design a product for retail investors who want to use prediction markets as a savings device” strikes me as a very good exercise for the reader, and I expect that within two years I will be writing about a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund.
- Will this prediction come true?
- Resolves Yes if Matt Levine talks about the existence of prediction market ETFs on Money Stuff, or an 'equivalent' outlet (eg.
- Money Stuff gets bought out from Bloomberg by another news organisation, or spins off into a separate blog/substack which is Matt Levine's primary outlet.
- Basically not if he tweets about it or mentions it off-hand in an interview or podcast or something), as one of the 'main stories' and not under 'Things happen' (or equivalent)
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 57% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07? é resolvido?
- Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07? deverá ser resolvido em 8 de novembro de 2026.
- Como Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: On the Money Stuff column on 7th November, Matt Levine wrote: