Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Iran succumb to U.S. demands??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 90.1% em 28 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will Iran succumb to U.S. demands? é resolvido?

Will Iran succumb to U.S. demands? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 90.1%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 1 hora

Atrasado

24/02/26, 14:19 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

This market resolves YES if Iran accepts and complies with the primary U.S. demands in the on going negotiations.

Specifically, Iran must:
Transfer its (allegedly) remaining 400 kg of enriched uranium or be found to not have any.
Halt its nuclear weapons development.
Restrict its ballistic missile program.
End its financial, political and military support for groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.