Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 56.4%
Previsores
21
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado13/06/23, 18:27 UTC20/01/34, 19:27 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals?
Manifold MarketsConditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegras
I have spent about 2500 to 3800 hours on AI alignment since Feb 2022.
- This is a rough 75% confidence interval derived from a cursory inspection of activity data I have collected in that period (mostly browser and conversation history).
- This works out to around 5.0 to 7.6 hours per day, which seems a little high to me, but I cast a wide net for what counts (anything done with the intention of reducing AI risk: thinking, reading, planning, talking, executing subgoals), so I'm not surprised.
- If this seems off to you, let me know whether you believe it would be worthwhile to perform a more rigorous analysis, and what exactly that would involve.
- Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if I continue to be committed to AGI notkilleveryoneism (whether directly or indirectly) till the end of my natural lifespan.
Mercados abertos
SportsPOLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,9 mi
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 24,5 mi
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Volume total
- € 2,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 24,6 mi
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Volume total
- € 1,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mi
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Volume total
- € 1,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,6 mi
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 56% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life? é resolvido?
- Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life? deverá ser resolvido em 20 de janeiro de 2034.
- Como Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: I have spent about 2500 to 3800 hours on AI alignment since Feb 2022.