Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 56.2%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado18/06/26, 22:58 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.
- As of the creation of this market, I have written about 131k words (roughly 580 pages), and I estimate that I am about 90% done, but I think any novelist would tell you that these kinds of estimates are tricky.
- Progress has slowed to a crawl since my second child was born last October, but I am determined to finish it.
- Resolves YES if the final chapter is completed by December 31st, 2026 Otherwise Resolves NO
- Some useful context:
- I have finished four first drafts of previous novels, ranging in length from ~60k to ~120k words.
Mercados abertos
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 342,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 91,2 mil
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 182,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 90,8 mil
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+25.1pt47.2%
- No Bond chosen-3.1pt18.9%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 mais resultados
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+8.0pt46%
- Jack Barton-4.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt18%
+27 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,8 mi
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 264,6 mil
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-53.0pt14%
- Above 50-56.0pt8%
- Above 55-48.0pt2%
+14 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 84,3 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 56% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? é resolvido?
- Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.