Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Gwern publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 87.3% em 26 de outubro de 2026.

Will Gwern publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 87.3%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 11 horas

Desatualizado

18/09/24, 16:33 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Resolution Criteria:

The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
Gwern publishes a standalone book available in print form before December 31, 2026
The book is authored solely by Gwern and is not part of a collection including works from multiple authors
The market will resolve as "No" if:
Gwern does not publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026