Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will global peak oil production occur before 2028??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 60.2% em 28 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will global peak oil production occur before 2028? é resolvido?

Will global peak oil production occur before 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2029.

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Não 60.2%

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13/01/26, 14:48 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC

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"Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline.

It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."
from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Resolves YES if total world oil production in 2028 and 2029 are below a peak reached during or before the year 2027, AND there is a majority consensus among energy economy experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2027.
Resolves NO if world total oil production is reported to be above 2027 levels in any of the two years following.
[image]from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html