Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?
Eventos corporativosOne-OffRegulamentaçãoNegócios e empresasPolítica dos EUAMacro e economia2aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 03:37 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 52.6%
Previsores
25
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado8/01/25, 14:44 UTC1/02/29, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?
KalshiWill the USPS be privatized by the end of Trump's term as president?
Manifold MarketsWill any of Petrobras, Banco do Brasil or Caixa Economica Federal be privatized until EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States Postal Service be Privatized before the end of 2032?
Manifold MarketsWhich banks will fail by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
KalshiRegras
GSE exit from government conservatorship could enrich speculative investors in their common and preferred equity, including Bill Ackman who has loudly advocated for their release on Twitter.
- Privatization was a putative goal of the first Trump administration, but fairly little progress was made, in part due to large structural difficulties in accomplishing the goal, including the need for enormous amounts of capital to back the GSEs were they to go private.
- Some of those obstacles have lessened since the first Trump administration ended.
- Fannie and Freddie's equity both trade in the mid $4 range at the time this market opened, compared to about $1 at the recent lows during the Biden administration, and $31 that Bill Ackman suggested as a most likely IPO price.
- Resolution will be based on my personal judgement, and I will not trade in this question.
- Generally an event will count as a "YES" if it ends some or all of the existing government conservatorship and creates a clear path for private investors to be able to receive future cashflows resulting from the GSEs' future profits.
