Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 69.5%
Previsores
2
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado28/04/26, 19:37 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Derek Thompson formally announces a campaign for any elected public office (federal, state, or local) on or before December 31, 2030.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- A "formal announcement" is defined as an official declaration by Derek Thompson, a filing with an electoral commission, or a verifiable campaign website launch indicating a run for office.
- If he holds office by election, or is a declared candidate by the resolution date, the market resolves to YES.
- Derek Thompson (born 1986) is an American journalist, podcaster, and author who was a staff writer at The Atlantic from 2009 until mid-2025, when he left to write independently on Substack .
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 70% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030? é resolvido?
- Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria