Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 68.3%
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2
Tipo de pergunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado8/04/26, 14:35 UTC30/06/27, 04:00 UTC
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This market resolves YES if China's MOFCOM export license requirement for samarium (Sm), samarium oxide (Sm2O3), and samarium alloys is actively enforced on June 30, 2027 — i.e., exporters must obtain an export license under MOFCOM Decree No. 18 or equivalent order.
- YES if: Export licenses are required for samarium as of June 30, 2027 NO if: Controls are suspended or permanently rescinded on June 30, 2027
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- MOFCOM official gazette (mofcom.gov.cn) — export control announcements
- China Ministry of Commerce policy announcements
- Reuters / Bloomberg reporting on China rare earth export policy