Will China have lifted its April 2025 heavy rare earth export licensing (globally or for the US) as of Dec 31, 2026?
One-OffRegulamentaçãoChina2mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93%
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Atrasado23/09/26, 13:13 UTC31/12/26, 00:00 UTC
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This market resolves YES if, on December 31, 2026, an official Chinese measure is in effect that suspends or removes the export licensing requirement of MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 for all seven covered elements: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium.
- The measure may apply to all destinations or to exports to the United States.
- It resolves NO otherwise.
- The following do not count: granting individual or general licences under the regime (general licences began in December 2025), faster approvals, or a suspension covering only some of the seven elements.
- Background: Announcement No. 18 (April 4, 2025) placed these elements under dual-use export licensing.
- The November 2025 Busan truce suspended China's later October 2025 controls but left this regime in place.
