Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93.5%
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado3/01/26, 10:20 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if China transitions to a liberal democracy by December 31, 2029.
- A liberal democracy is defined as a system with: free and fair multi-party elections for national leadership, freedom of speech and assembly, an independent judiciary, and meaningful political opposition.
- Resolution will be determined by reference to Freedom House's annual Freedom in the World reports, which assess political rights and civil liberties.
- The market resolves YES only if Freedom House rates China as "Free" (indicating a liberal democracy) by the deadline.
- If China remains "Partly Free" or "Not Free," the market resolves NO.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will China become democratic before 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 94% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will China become democratic before 2030? é resolvido?
- Will China become democratic before 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2029.
- Como Will China become democratic before 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution Criteria