Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93.5%
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado3/01/26, 10:20 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if China transitions to a liberal democracy by December 31, 2029.
- A liberal democracy is defined as a system with: free and fair multi-party elections for national leadership, freedom of speech and assembly, an independent judiciary, and meaningful political opposition.
- Resolution will be determined by reference to Freedom House's annual Freedom in the World reports, which assess political rights and civil liberties.
- The market resolves YES only if Freedom House rates China as "Free" (indicating a liberal democracy) by the deadline.
- If China remains "Partly Free" or "Not Free," the market resolves NO.
