Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 11:45 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 73.9%
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7
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado1/09/26, 04:41 UTC31/08/27, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiAt the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought?
Manifold MarketsRegras
At the end of August 2027, will California be in a widespread drought?
- Yes: As reported by the US Drought Monitor, large parts of California are in at least a moderate drought as per the U.S. Drought Monitor at UNL.
- No: Most of California is either not in a drought, or at most "abnormally dry".
- The measure is if there's a drought in August, so this won't close early if there's a widespread drought sooner.
- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?West
- Resolution criteria
