Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 65.5%
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado1/09/26, 04:43 UTC31/08/28, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
New York J: To Break Playoff Drought
KalshiExceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 8, 2026
PolymarketHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?
PolymarketWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 10% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 15% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 20% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExRegras
At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought?
- Yes: As reported by the US Drought Monitor, large parts of California are in at least a moderate drought as per the U.S. Drought Monitor at UNL.
- No: Most of California is either not in a drought, or at most "abnormally dry".
- The measure is if there's a drought in August, so this won't close early if there's a widespread drought sooner.
- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?West
- Resolution criteria
Mercados abertos
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 232,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 227,3 mil
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Houston+41.0pt71%
- Miami-6.0pt69%
+19 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 186,1 mil
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+36.0pt81.7%
- 90° to 91°-29.0pt7.7%
- 94° or above+3.0pt7.7%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt68.2%
- 82° to 83°-12.0pt24.3%
- 79° or below-3.0pt4.7%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 mais resultados
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No89%
- Yes-4.0pt11%
- Volume total
- € 66,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 28,6 mil
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 66% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought? é resolvido?
- At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de agosto de 2028.
- Como At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought?