Will California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoGeopolíticaChina9aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 89.5%
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 23 horas
Desatualizado7/09/26, 06:08 UTC31/12/35, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
There could be many potential reasons, one is that AGI could become extremely dominating militarily in a way that gives the state high (bargaining) powers
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2035, at 11:59 PM PT, California has officially seceded from the United States or is otherwise formally recognized as an independent, sovereign nation-state separate from the United States federal government.
- To resolve to YES, at least one of the following conditions must be met:
- De Facto Sovereignty (similar to Taiwan): California successfully establishes full military and political autonomy, completely voids U.S. federal jurisdiction over its territory, and obtains formal diplomatic recognition as an independent state from the United States or admission as a member state of the United Nations.
- Federal Recognition: The United States federal government officially recognizes California's secession and sovereign independence through an Act of Congress, a ratified constitutional amendment, or a binding Supreme Court ruling.
