Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 95%
Previsores
121
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado23/10/23, 01:36 UTC2/01/27, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
KalshiSpotify Premium Family Plan price increase this year?
KalshiSpotify Premium Duo Plan price increase this year?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
PolymarketRegras
I've been chatting with @BTE about their plan to found a competitor to Manifold.
- The core plan is a little differerent from the direction Manifold has gone, and seems like it could go very well or completely fail.
- I've been asked not to share the details.
- Resolves subjectivly based on whether it overall seems to have worked out.
- (Resolves N/A if it's not attempted.) I won't bet.
- Update 2025-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Deadline for Resolution: The market will now automatically resolve as NO at the end of 2026 unless BTE demonstrates something real.
Mercados abertos
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+5.5pt96%
- $25M+8.5pt94%
- $50M+13.0pt87%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 351,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 351,4 mil
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt52%
- 65-89+24.5pt45.1%
- 90-114-2.5pt2.9%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 mais resultados
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-21918.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 mais resultados
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,7 mil
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 mais resultados
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will BTE's secret plan work??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 95% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will BTE's secret plan work? é resolvido?
- Will BTE's secret plan work? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will BTE's secret plan work? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: I've been chatting with @BTE about their plan to found a competitor to Manifold.