Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 89.7%
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 minutos
9/01/23, 18:02 UTC1/01/28, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiNext Prime Minister of Spain?
PolymarketRegras
Bill Gurley, the venture capitalist at Benchmark.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
- IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.