Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?
América LatinaOne-OffIAEntretenimentoMúsicaEuropa2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 74.5%
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 20 minutos
13/06/26, 13:34 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will viral gain-of-function research be significantly more restricted in the US on 01/01/2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the "right to part-time work" be significantly restricted in Germany before February 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the EU order a general-purpose AI model withdrawn or restricted from its market before 2027?
FutuurWill "OpenAI Models Behind HuggingFace Cybersecurit..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold Markets[Add options] Which of these highly unlikely things will happen to me this century?
Manifold MarketsNetherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
This market asks whether OpenAI will release or operate a model that ends up gated to the United States — by geography, residency, or nationality — while being withheld from its normal international user base.
- "Restricted to US persons" is used loosely, for intent.
- The market does not turn on the formal legal definition (citizens, green-card holders, etc.).
- What matters is that a model is gated to the US / people in the US / US residents / US nationals by law or policy, and most of OpenAI's usual foreign user base cannot use it.
- Resolves YES if OpenAI releases or operates any model (via ChatGPT, the API, or any OpenAI product) that becomes subject to a US-only restriction through any of:
- Geography — available to users accessing from within the US but withheld from a substantial share of the countries OpenAI normally serves (UK, EU, Canada, Japan, India, Australia, Brazil, etc.).
