Will any of these senior Supreme Court Justices voluntarily retire by 2028?
One-OffPolítica dos EUAPolíticaEleição1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSamuel Alito (age 74 in 2024) 69%Líder entre 4 opções
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multiple choice
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Variação 7d
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Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado12/12/24, 00:25 UTC11/01/28, 04:59 UTC
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It is commonly accepted that Ruth Bader Ginsberg, despite ailing health, declined to step down before 2016 expecting that she could have her Supreme Court seat replaced by the first female president.
- If this was in fact a plan, it backfired wildly, leading to a conservative supermajority that will last for at least an entire generation.
- Any justice who voluntarily steps down during the next presidential cycle will likely see their seat filled by someone under sixty, all but guaranteeing a conservative majority for the next twenty years.
- I’m throwing Sotomayor in the mix, because despite being a relatively new justice, there are concerns of her health, and there was a push for her to step down and let Biden refill her seat instead of risking it slip like RBG’s.
- Results will be updated as justices step down, or the end of the 47th presidential term is reached in January 2029.
- Any judge who passes away during that term without stepping down will be marked as a “NO”, not voided.
