Will another UN member state leader holds any other UN state leader or former leader in captivity in 2026?
Política dos EUAOne-OffAmérica Latina2mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 16:20 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 76.7%
Previsores
9
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado5/01/26, 02:05 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
What will be the next UN Member state?
Manifold MarketsWill A.I. technology lead to regime change and /or state collapse in a UN member state by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill a nation in Europe which is not currently a full UN member state gain that status by 2035.
Manifold MarketsWill Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027?
Manifold MarketsFall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
PolymarketVenezuela leader end of 2026?
PolymarketRegras
excluding Trump holding Maduro, will there be another one this year?
- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on pairwise combinations of captors and captives:
- If the same leader holds multiple different leaders captive, each new pairing counts as a separate instance
- If a successor to a previously captured leader is held (and sufficiently well-established), that counts as a new instance
- Holding former leaders (e.g., former U.S. presidents) also counts
- Capturing multiple subordinates or acting officials under one regime does not clearly satisfy the criteria
