Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
RegulamentaçãoOne-OffChinaAmérica LatinaCommodities2aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 04:28 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualSim 76.9%
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado4/05/26, 17:53 UTC31/05/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill US carbon dioxide emmissions exceed 4,300 million metric tons in 2028?
ForecastExWill US carbon dioxide emmissions exceed 4,350 million metric tons in 2028?
ForecastExRegras
This market resolves YES if Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 2.6 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Alcoa's 2024 Aluminum segment shipments came in at 2.5–2.6 Mt with modest expansion underway at Pinjarra (Western Australia) and Alumar (Brazil).
- The 2.6 Mt strike for 2028 sits at roughly the company's run-rate; under the modest Pinjarra/Alumar ramp, 2028 production could come in slightly above this strike, making this a probability-anchored just above 50%.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- Alcoa Corporation Q4 / full-year financial release https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases
