Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 52.4% em 29 de outubro de 2026.

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

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Dados de 29 de out. de 2026, 13:06 UTC · política pm-quality-4

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Sim 52.4%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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1/08/26, 16:23 UTC1/01/30, 07:59 UTC

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Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO).

It's a much more stringent Turing test than just "person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human".
In fact, it's carefully constructed to be a proxy for AGI.
Experts who know all the bot's weaknesses get to grill it for hours.
Kurzweil and Kapor agree that LLMs as of 2023 don't and can't pass this Turing test.
Personally I think Kapor will win and Kurzweil will lose -- that a computer will not pass this version of the Turing test this decade.