Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 89.1% em 23 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ? é resolvido?

Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.

A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 89.1%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 8 minutos

15/10/26, 17:34 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, before December 31 at 11:59 PM UTC, a confirmed security advisory, peer-reviewed publication, or public proof-of-concept demonstrates that an AI system or AI-derived mathematical algorithm has broken a core cryptographic primitive or consensus mechanism of a major public blockchain (e.g., Bitcoin or Ethereum).
To resolve to YES, the event must satisfy at least one of the following criteria:
Private Key Recovery: A practical method derived via AI that allows recovering a private key from an exposed public key for standard signature schemes (e.g., ECDSA or Schnorr) using available classical hardware.
Hash Function Break: A viable preimage or collision attack against hash functions used by major chains (e.g., SHA-256 or Keccak-256) enabled by AI mathematical breakthroughs.
Consensus Break: A functional protocol-level attack generated or executed via AI that breaks double-spend protection or block validation on a top-20 cryptocurrency network without acquiring majority hash power or stake.