Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 69.8% em 30 de outubro de 2026.

Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030?

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Sim 69.8%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Atualizado há 8 horas

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3/08/23, 17:06 UTC2/01/30, 07:59 UTC

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This market resolves YES if a current Republican member of the US congress is identified as a white nationalist before 2030.

This market resolves NO if that does not happen.
Identifying someone as a white nationalist would involve them attending (in person, remotely, or asychronously through video or audio) or speaking at an event intended for white nationalists AND having this be credibly reported on.
To avoid controversy, I will use this archived list from wikipedia.
As a result, Rep. Greene and Rep. Gosar's attendance at the American First Political Action Committee does not qualify, while former Rep. King's attendance at an American Renaissance conference does qualify.
(Note: this question was inspired by former Rep. Steve King's history of racism.)