Will a global internet outage affect at least 25% of internet users for 24 consecutive hours before 2030?
One-OffTecnologia3aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 85.6%
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Atualizado há 38 minutos
9/10/26, 16:21 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
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This market resolves YES if, before 1 January 2030 at 00:00 UTC, a single global internet disruption prevents at least 25% of the world's internet users from accessing the public internet for at least 24 consecutive hours.
- Resolution criteria
- - The disruption must affect at least 25% of the estimated global internet-user population simultaneously for 24 consecutive hours.
- - Outages may result from cyberattacks, infrastructure failures, power-grid failures, government actions, or other causes.
- - Localised outages, individual website failures, social media disruptions, and slow connections do not qualify unless the global threshold is met.
- - The disruption must be supported by credible evidence from organisations such as Cloudflare Radar, NetBlocks, Internet Society, or comparable independent network-monitoring sources.
