Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Zohran Mamdani 30.7%-0.5ptLíder entre 20 opções
Previsores
281
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+3.1 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
8/12/25, 16:45 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
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Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiRegras
This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of the Year.
- It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
- If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit it in a comment below.
- If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it, and you'll get a bonus.
- Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options.
- The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.
Mercados abertos
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 319,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 98 mil
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,8 mi
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
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KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
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- Volume total
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KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
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- Above 5099%
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- Volume total
- € 130,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 45,3 mil
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 4 mi
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- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year??
- A Manifold Markets cota Zohran Mamdani em 31% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? é resolvido?
- Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of the Year.