Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualMagdalena Andersson (S) 72%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
-3.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado23/09/25, 07:11 UTC30/01/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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KalshiRegras
Requires a successful investiture vote.
- Fresh elections without a successful investiture resolves N/A. If the government collapses soon after forming and another person becomes PM, it’s still the first to successfully become PM post-election that counts.
- Elections are in September 2026.
- Resolution is expected within about a month, or at least within the year, but can potentially drag on.
- For example, government formation after the 2018 elections took a record 134 days.
