Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualTina Kotek - Oregon Governor 91.9%Líder entre 9 opções
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
-1.1 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado30/09/26, 05:31 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 Democratic candidate lose any state Kamala Harris won?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolves Yes if the listed candidate certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state.Outcome verified from Federal Election Commission, Maine Secretary of State, Oregon Secretary of Stateand other secretaries of states in the listed states.
- A candidate's 2026 vote share is their share of all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office, as certified by that state's official election authority, including votes received on every ballot line on which the candidate appears.
- Where a race uses ranked-choice tabulation or a runoff, the first-round (first-choice) share is used.
- Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share is her share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote, including every ballot line on which she appeared, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results.
- Shares are compared unrounded.